Dengue prevalence as an evidence of Climate change in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Climate change is the main fundamental human development challenge of the 21st century. Sri Lanka is a developing island nation subject to tropical climate patterns; highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. High variability of rainfall patterns and increasing temperature experienced during the recent past in Sri Lanka could be one of the consequences of global climate change with the increase of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main objective of this study is to investigate the possibility to use the dengue prevalence as an evidence of climate change in Sri Lanka by establishing the correlation of climate factors and dengue incidence. Seven districts were randomly selected across all climatic zones for the study and dengue incidence, rainfall, and temperature statistics of last 10 years were collected from relevant governmental institutions. Data analysis was done using SPSS (version 21) and R (Rx64 3.5.1) Statistical Software. According to the findings of the study, rainfall and temperature difference have a statistically significant correlation with dengue incidents. Therefore, dengue prevalence can be used as an evidence of climate change in Sri Lanka. Hence, authorities should take necessary steps to mainstream Climate change into development policies in all sectors for a sustainable future.

KEYWORDS: Adaptation, Climate change, Dengue, Mitigation, UNFCCC