Enhancing Domestic Revenue Mobilization in Sri Lanka: A Delphi-Based Strategic Framework for Fiscal Resilience

Abstract

Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) remains central to Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and long-term fiscal resilience. However, policy fragmentation, weak administrative capacity, and low taxpayer trust continue to hinder progress. This study adopts a three-round Delphi methodology to develop expert consensus on a strategic framework for DRM reform in Sri Lanka. Twenty-one national experts from tax administration, academia, and the private sector participated in the iterative process, which focused on four thematic pillars: tax policy reform, tax and revenue administration, governance, compliance and trust, and revenue-development nexus. Findings from the Delphi rounds revealed strong consensus on key reforms including fair and transparent tax policy, expanding the tax base to informal sectors, improving taxpayer education and rights awareness, promoting digitalization, and enhancing institutional performance through service-oriented and risk-based compliance strategies. Furthermore, experts emphasized the importance of integrating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), strengthening international cooperation, and simplifying complex tax laws to improve clarity and equity. The study introduced emerging insights such as civic-centered tax morality, AI-assisted compliance, and adaptive equity frameworks, reflecting the dynamic nature of tax systems in digital and transitional economies. The final consensus offers a coherent, context-sensitive DRM framework that balances technical soundness with social legitimacy. This research contributes both theoretically and practically to the discourse on tax reform in developing economies. It provides actionable policy recommendations for enhancing revenue generation while fostering public trust and governance accountability. The approach and findings are transferable to other low-and middle-income countries facing similar fiscal and institutional challenges.